Alberta Politics

Professor Allan Lichtman 13 point checklist

• 1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

  5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

  6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero

  14. Step I:

      1. Examine and determine which of the 13 points could be used in examining Alberta's next election?

      2. Step II:

      3. In groups we'll work to apply this revised list in Alberta.

      4. Step III:

      5. Present to the class your findings, supported by appropriate evidence.

      6. Step IV:

      7. Upon discussion, our class will come up with a prediction for the next provincial election using a modified version of Professor Lichtman 13 point checklist.

      8. Resources

      9. Voter poll tracking for Alberta

         1. Alberta political articles