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Can we use/adapt the most successful model for predicting US presidential elections for the next Alberta provincial election?

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Professor Allan Lichtman 13 point checklist

    1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

    7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero

    14. Step I:

      1. Examine and determine which of the 13 points could be used in examining Alberta's next election?

      2. Step II:

      3. In groups we'll work to apply this revised list in Alberta.

      4. Step III:

      5. Present to the class your findings, supported by appropriate evidence.

      6. Step IV:

      7. Upon discussion, our class will come up with a prediction for the next provincial election using a modified version of Professor Lichtman 13 point checklist.

      8. Resources

      9. Voter poll tracking for Alberta

        1. Alberta political articles

        1. Party Websites

        2. NDP

        3. Wildrose party

        4. PC

        5. Liberal

        6. Alberta Party